MyDD :: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote

Hillary Will Win Popular Vote

by hypopg, Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:48:41 AM EST

With her huge win last night in West Virginia, and a similar win likely in Kentucky, Hillary seems poised to carry the popular vote
without counting Michigan. It is even conceivable that she could win the popular vote without counting Florida. It's all up to Puerto Rico. Hillary could garner up to a 500,000 vote gain in the Commonwealth. Just remember how Obamites crowed after a 7 vote win in Guam.

One can see exactly how the system was gamed when one compares caucus results in Nebraska and Washington versus the results in those states respective beauty contests. Texas is another case in point. It seems where there were few participants in caucus states Obama operatives were able to pack the caucuses. When the people as a whole got to speak there were material differences in the outcomes.

Obama has a weakness with the Democratic Party's core constituency, white working class voters. That is the group that will ultimately determine who becomes president. While blacks are another core constituency, they are a much smaller group and many are in southern states where their votes are effectively nullified by larger Republican leaning majorities.

Democrats made much of Al Gore's popular vote win in 1980. The popular vote totals should weigh heavily on the minds of SDs.
It is hard for Democrats to ignore the mantra: Let every vote count.

Permalink :: 64 Comments :: Post a Comment

Al Gore's win in 2000 (2.00 / 1)

not 1980. You have a typo.

I agree with everything you have said.

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:56:14 AM EST

We can't put forward a candidate who doesn't win (2.00 / 1)

in 2008. There will be so many disgusted people it is almost assured that they will start a new party and say to hell with the 'democratic' party.

We have to do what it takes to stay true to Democratic core values and WIN.

To me, Obama sounds more like a republican. Plus, its all fluff, no substance. Healthcare, nuclear sellout, wants to INCREASE military spending with no caveats (but claims to be against war in Oraq while not committing to pulling out asap) no clear economic plan except for pork and buzzwords, wants to change social security, buys into lies on inflation, unwilling to help poor people buy soon to be even more overpriced insurance (if they force insurers to price everyone the same, price will rise, if not, current problems for uninsurables continue and ever increasing numbers of people not in large groups fall off the map) Gee thanks DNC. What a mess.

Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.

by architek on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:03:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Universal Healthcare Without Mandates (2.00 / 2)

is not universal. In fact Health Insurance should be funded by general revenues and mainly a health levy on the wealthy. That was everyone is always covered.
Doctors will save a bundle just having a single payer. It's win win unless you are an HMO.

by hypopg on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:28:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Universal Healthcare Without Mandates (none / 0)

There is only one way to make a health care system universal and that is single-payer.

Hillaries harping about the difference with Barack's plan is silly as long as she does not make clear how she will enforce the mandate.

by hebi on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:33:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What then said Plato's ghost. What then? (2.00 / 5)

Balance of two evils. Say she did win the popular vote (I'm assuming you include the rigged vote in MI) and then SD's flock to her. Many would need to flip. Assuming that somehow, through a floor fight and the credentials committee, she scrapes the nomination in August.

What then? said Plato's ghost, what then?

Then the guy who won the majority of pledged delegates, majority of states, the PV in all legitimate contests, is now NOT the nominee?

Obama has some problems at the moment with the Appalachian vote, but imagine the response of youth, AA voters, all those Western and Mid-Western swing states.

What then? said Plato's ghost, what then?

Let's imagine we're a self interested calculating Super delegate up for re-election this year. We don't care passionately about either candidate, but we're looking at our own political future. We see Obama has some negatives. We see Hillary has some too. Are we really going to remove the leading nominee because of one controversial metric? But even more, IMAGINE if we did...

What then? said Plato's ghost, what then?

Pointing to the inadequacies of John McCain

by duende on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:00:10 AM EST

Re: What then said Plato's ghost. What then? (none / 0)

you keep recycling false after false:
majority of states: exclude caucuses as a fraud;
majority of states: open primaries VERY questionable given games played by GOPs;
majority of states: most states where he won using race card are red and GOP will win them, see for example this:
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political /georgia_poll_051408.htm

majority of pledged delegates: see above - it is fraud against will of the people;
majority of pledged delegates: they will become unpledged after 1st vote on convention;
popular vote will go to her; it is already hers if you count FL&MI, see 5th line here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_vote_count.htm l
and it will be counted.
Obama is unelectable and Supers will do crime against party and voters if they will endorse the loser.

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:56:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What then said Plato's ghost. What then? (2.00 / 7)

Now I get it, take away all the states Obama won, and guess what, Hillary wins!

by interestedbystander on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:16:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yep, (2.00 / 3)

that does seem to be the standard of legitimacy here.

Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo

by rb608 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:31:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

go to dkos for legitimacy (none / 0)

they will love you.

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:42:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: go to dkos for legitimacy (2.00 / 2)

Go to third grade, they will relate to you.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:53:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: go to dkos for legitimacy (none / 0)

oh: and you are in 4th grade?

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:50:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

if your candidate was winning right (none / 0)

now in exact same way that Obama is you would screaming that other guy is the loser.

You do not care a bit how she wins, as longs as she wins.

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:21:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: go to dkos for legitimacy (none / 0)

Well, logic, reason, and reading comprehension do seem to be in greater supply there. Just today, here, the most ridiculous argument to date has topped the front page here. Another poster cited the entire 75% white population of the US as working class voters. And posters who point out egregious faults of logic or specious facts are quickly dismissed as partisan, as though truth and reason were subjective. 2+2=4 here just as on dKos; but only here will you get an argument about it.

Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo

by rb608 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:43:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why don't you give up on (2.00 / 1)

The "caucus = fraud" thing. It's just sad. Clinton presumably knew how caucuses work; her husband won some back in 1992. If she didn't know how to run in them, or couldn't be bothered to put up any kind of fight in caucuses because she thought she could win without them, then that's her fault, not the fault of the caucuses or of the states that chose to hold them rather than primaries.
If they were so unfair, why didn't she do something in the last 8 years to try to influence states to give up on them and hold primaries instead?
Now, if leading up to this election, a bunch of states with legislatures who were really big on Obama and who thought he could only win caucuses had switched to caucuses a month or 2 before the vote, well, then Clinton would have had something legitimate to fuss about. But these states have been holding caucuses for 40 years or something now. Maybe longer, I don't know; I'm not an authority on the history of state caucuses and primaries. But I do know that they've been holding them as long as I can remember, and the first election I was old enough to really remember was 1984, so that's 24 years.
Get over this, will you? she lost and she lost fairly. Nobody "cheated". Nobody "stole" anything from her. She just didn't get ready for a real fight. When it happened, she was caught flat-footed.

ÞÞÞ

by Mumphrey on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:03:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes the Guy Who Gamed the System (1.00 / 1)

should he win? The guy he got his delegates by getting militants out on cold winter nights, should he win?

by hypopg on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:30:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton would have taken the mw caucus states (none / 0)

if they had been primaries and she had actually prepared for them. But your point is still valid. The horse is out of the barn -- the media coronated Obama and he has won on a number of key metrics - even if he loses the PV w/o MI I don't think he will be denied.

by activatedbybush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:49:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (2.00 / 3)

You're dead wrong, The Democratic Party's core constituency is Black people. They have been the most dependable and solid component of the party for decades.

Obama will rout in Oregon and will end with over 500,000 in total votes.

You are tryong to play the race game as that is all that you have.
Just a bankrupt and empty shell of a game to argue for.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:06:45 AM EST

12% of the population is a small core (none / 0)

by lombard on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:39:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 12% of the population is a small core (2.00 / 2)

45 million out of 300 is no mean small number.
Secondly there is no way that she can win PA. OH or another of these swing states she references without solid black turnout in cities.

You play the race card. Cause that is all that you have.

A bankrupt campaign.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:42:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 12% of the population is a small core (1.00 / 4)

I don't see why black people ignore the benefits of voting for Hillary. She's obviously going to help them more than Obama. (just like she will the rest of us) Or are black people gullible - so fooled by the fact that Obama is half black, that they don't see that Obama is a slick marketed character in the long tradition of them?

"Glittering Generalities"
Look it up.

Come on people, you can do better than Obama.

Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.

by architek on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:07:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Most working class people who oppose Obama (1.00 / 4)

do it BECAUSE HE IS A SHYSTER, BECAUSE HE IS TOO SLICK, AND NOT ADDRESSING OUR NEEDS WITH SUBSTANCE, NOT BECAUSE HE IS HALF BLACK.

Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.

by architek on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:10:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice parroting of the talking points (none / 0)

but do you have substantive poll numbers to back up those assertions? No, of course not.

Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo

by rb608 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:34:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 12% of the population is a small core (1.50 / 2)

Wow, that's pretty insulting... I guess you are saying that AA voters are too stupid to be allowed to vote.

by LordMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:59:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 12% of the population is a small core (2.00 / 1)

Actually as of 2000, it was 36.6 million.

Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime

by gunner on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:43:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (2.00 / 1)

That is indeed a core constituency of the Democratic Party, but you know why it's always white working-class people who are mentioned, right? Because they are the swing. It's just the way things are. Both parties go after this demographic because it is big and it can be fickle.

Two more strong cores of the Dems are Jews and gay people. These groups are smaller than AAs in the population. The take-home point is that the party shouldn't rely on cores but instead should try to pull in as many people as possible. We can unite around the core issue of economic justice, which is an umbrella that can illuminate all sorts of other issues, such as civil rights, women's rights, nondiscrimination, etc.

A huge core constituency that both parties are trying to pull in is the growing Latino group. It would be awesome to lure that group into a long-term relationship with the Democrats. Since most Latinos are in the working class, it's a great fit. Economic justice is key for this group as well. Democrats also stand for real progress in education, and more access to college education would raise the economic prospects of many Latino-Americans.

by Montague on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:47:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

blacks are not major core constituency (1.25 / 4)

blacks just 12% of population.
white voters are 75%. And I hope you you WANT latinos to be part of "core constituency".
They are currently 15% of population (much more than blacks) and soon they will be 30% of population and Obama losing them while Hillary winning them.
And women are majority in this country and seniors are becoming majority as population is aging.
Obama leading Democratic party to the crashing defeat and it will be bad for many years to come.
So you are DEAD WRONG, but you can repost on dkos, they will love you. I don't and majority of MYDD too, except cancer cells from dkos

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:06:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

All of us need to realize that the world DOES NOT (2.00 / 1)

'owe us' ANYTHING. We do not own anything.

A big part of the reason jobs are getting hard to find is simply that OTHER PEOPLE are desperate and increasingly willing to work far longer and harder than we are. It used to be that we had more skills than they do, but more and more, they have more skills too.

Also, machines (by which I mean a broad category of solutions, many computer based, that can replace people in jobs) are getting more and more sophisticated, and cheaper, at an EXPONENTIAL rate.

Thats a very hard situation to turn into a prosperous life.

If we as a nation are not willing to INVEST IN OUR COUNTRY to TURN that around, (and it is going to take a HUGE investment) we might as well kill ourselves now.

Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.

by architek on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:16:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama represents denial.. (1.00 / 1)

He seems to want to pretend he is investing in our country, but he really represents the old guard and their desire to prolong the agony and keep their huge slice of the pie despite incredible odds.

Obviously, McCain is a decoy. I feel that the rights real candidate is Obama.

Hes the best they could have hoped for right now and he has the advantage of being camoflaged.

Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.

by architek on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:19:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Dude, who ARE you? (none / 0)

What's your deal?
I've been wondering this for a while now.
Are you just some guy who doesn't take his medicine every day? Are you some kind of wacked out Maoist or Stalinist or some other nutty kind of "ist"?
I mean you come here all the time and spout off all this stuff and most of the time I don't have the first damned clue what you're going on about other than that you hate Obama. It's like it's some kind of jargon that I'd expect people like the Shining Path or somebody to go on about. It's all so obscure; you really ought to try to write for the rest of us who don't belong to whatever cell you belong to...

ÞÞÞ

by Mumphrey on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:12:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Channeling Karl Marx - I like it! (none / 0)

by activatedbybush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:50:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: blacks are not major core constituency (2.00 / 5)

The SD's have all the information, and more, than you do. They are making a decision that will benefit the party and give dems the best chance of winning in all races in November. They are flocking overwhelmingly to Obama. Screech all you want, this is over.

by interestedbystander on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:20:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: blacks are not major core constituency (2.00 / 3)

You're playing fast and loose with the statistics. You cite white working class voters as the core constituency; but use the total 75% white figure for comparison. What percentage of the population is truly "white working class"? It sure as hell isn't 75%, or HRC would have the nomination sown up.

Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo

by rb608 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:36:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Now I'm a Racist - The Ultimate Obamite Weapon (2.00 / 1)

Blacks are an important constituency but they are 11% of the population. There are twice as many Hispanics and seven times as many White people. So let's not go overboard. There are lots of important pillars in the Democratic Party. And none are more Democratic than any other. Just who is playing the race card?

by hypopg on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:34:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (none / 0)

Obama has lost 6 out of the last 8 primaries (RI, TX, OH, PA, IN, WV to MS & NC, which he won by half the margin of SC), the latest by 40+ points and the media shrugs and just skips along to the General w/ their golden boy? AWWWWW HELL NO! Hillary, take this fight all the way to Denver, girl!

Do we really want the candidate who peaked in February? Push your local SuperDem to vote HRC in Denver!

by BlueDoggyDogg on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:18:42 AM EST

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (2.00 / 9)

I think you forgot the Vermont and Guam primaries -- so that's 6 out of 10 primaries, not 6 out of 8.

And since he won the 6 previous primaries to the point you started counted and he won the recent beauty show in Nebraska as well, that makes Hillary having lost 11 out of the last 17 primaries one of them by a margin of 50+.

by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:28:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (2.00 / 1)

lol! facts don't matter...

John McCain the flip-flopper...

by chinapaulo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:34:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (2.00 / 1)

Spot on! Guam and Vermont!
Reality has a Obama bias.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:39:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (none / 0)

Guam? Yet another stolen caucus by his zealous, crazed supporters no doubt, this time by 7 votes!? Yeah I'll safely leave that one out. and VT was called before RI, so yes, your guy is having a very bad run. good luck in the GE w/o OH, WV, PA or my vote.

Do we really want the candidate who peaked in February? Push your local SuperDem to vote HRC in Denver!

by BlueDoggyDogg on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:46:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (none / 0)

Guam wasn't a caucus, except in name. People threw in ballots and left, same as all primaries. (Not sure why they called it "caucus")

"and VT was called before RI, so yes, your guy is having a very bad run"

They were on the same day -- but your argument is that VT was a BIGGER victory for Obama and thus was called earlier? And that's supposed to be bad for Obama, that his victories tend to be BIG, while most of Hillary's tend to be 1-3% marginal ones?

Your sanity has simply abandoned the premises, I see. Either that or you simply don't give a damn about making sense -- which is worse.

--
As a sidenote: If Obama and Hillary are different enough that you won't vote for the one but you'll vote for the other, then you have no business using electability arguments as they should be irrelevant to you.

Electability arguments only make sense when the two candidates are both good enough that you'd vote for either before you'd vote for the opposition.

by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (2.00 / 7)

My Delusional Diary

"I am standing with Barack Obama to say, `Yes, we can!'" Hillary Clinton 6/7/08

by feliks on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:28:40 AM EST

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (2.00 / 7)

In the Democratic Party's nomination process, the so-called 'popular vote' is an illegitimate, flawed, and largely meaningless metric that disenfranchises the caucus states.

Clinton supporters on MyDD don't seem to understand this, but the superdelegates sure do -- which is why none of them has come out for Hillary on the grounds that she might 'win the popular vote'.

Oh, and the comparison the the popular vote vs. the electoral college in the general election is dishonest, inappropriate, and illegitimate. There is simply no analogy between the two.

John McCain the flip-flopper...

by chinapaulo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:31:46 AM EST

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (none / 0)

Oops.

Oh, and the comparison the the..

should read:

Oh, and the comparison to the..

John McCain the flip-flopper...

by chinapaulo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:33:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

looniest comment on this thread (1.00 / 1)

the will of the people disenfranchises caucus states?
do'h

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:44:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: looniest comment on this thread (none / 0)

No, assuming that the 'popular vote' represents the 'will of the people' disenfranchises the caucus states. If the 'cumulative popular vote' was a legitimate metric for choosing the nominee, no states would have held caucuses where the turnout is much lower.

Since the Democratic Party allows states to choose their delegates with either caucuses or primaries, coming up with some bogus number that represents the total number of votes minimizes the votes in the caucus states.

John McCain the flip-flopper...

by chinapaulo on Thu May 15, 2008 at 04:32:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No (2.00 / 9)

Sen. Clinton trails by over 706,000 popular votes, or by just under 412,000 popular votes if you want to include Florida.

Kentucky and Oregon will probably see turnouts of about 500,000-600,000 voters each. Charitably, if Sen. Obama wins Oregon 55-45 and Sen. Clinton wins KY 65-35, Sen. Clinton gains 200,000 votes.

Puerto Rico will probably see a turnout of 600,000 as well. Even if Clinton wins 70-30, she's only gaining 240,000 votes, not the 500,000 you're talking about.

Even if you split the Montana and South Dakota primaries Obama is likely to win, Clinton is still far short in overtaking Obama's lead without Florida, and even if you include that primary and give her the big leads I assigned, it still looks pretty dicey.

For more info, check out this New York Observer article.

Never separate the life you live from the words you speak. -Sen. Paul Wellstone (Minnesota)

by Max Fletcher on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:40:43 AM EST

Pdeurto Rico has 2.1 Million Registered Voters (1.33 / 3)

Mainly Democratic.
Turnout is typically 80%.
What is 80% of 1.5 miilion
If She wins 70 % 0f 1.2 million
almost 500,000 votes.
Where do you get that 6000,000 vote number.
I guess you suppository fell out!

by hypopg on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:39:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The superdelegates (2.00 / 6)

are voting, what. 4 to 1 in favor of Obama lately?

What makes you think that will change to 4 to 1 in favor of HRC?

by GT on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:56:07 AM EST

I predict you'll see more supers for O today (2.00 / 2)

sending the message that W. Virginia is meaningless. I think the worst thing at this point is that Sen. Clinton is perpetuating the myth that she can win this thing by anything less than a huge Obama scandal. She's dragging her core supporters up a cliff to throw them off the top. It's not right.

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:58:15 AM EST

Re: I predict you'll see more supers for O today (none / 0)

Last night I heard one of the talking head say Obama was going to release his April fundraising numbers today. If that is true it will also take a bit of the luster off of Hillary's VW win.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:22:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (none / 0)

Nah. She won't. And if she perchance wins it by Puerto Rico nobody will buy it. Puerto Rico has a primary, and consequently chooses delegates, but they can't vote in the general, so it's pretty hard to count them in any popular vote. And all this, of course, ceded the fact that popular vote is meaningless in the Democratic Primary election.

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:01:56 AM EST

Makes some sense (none / 0)

just as counting FL and MI make sense as they do vote in the general.

by activatedbybush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:52:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ya. It would have made sense. (none / 0)

If they hadn't disqualified themselves.

That will get settled soon, but it isn't going to be by counting it exactly as the illegitimate votes, so I predict the Clinton campaign will still maintain that FL and MI are an issue.

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:56:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Votes were legitimate (none / 0)

Question is how they get represented at the convention.

by activatedbybush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:00:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Votes were legitimate (none / 0)

Won't actually matter much by the convention, but I predict all the delegates will get to go and each will get some fraction of a vote, probably 1/2.

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Relative Value of Voters by Ethnicity (1.16 / 6)

Now Puerto Ricans don't count. Relative value of voters According to Daily Kos extrapolations.

Blacks = 1
Working Class Whites = 0.4
Jews = 0.39
Hispanics = 0.27
Puerto Ricans = 0.01

Next: Phrenological correlates of the Democratic Base

by hypopg on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:25:23 AM EST

Nice try. (2.00 / 1)

I didn't say that. What I'm trying to get through to you is that swaying the nomination to Hillary because of the voters in Puerto Rico would be like swaying it to Obama because voters in Italy liked him. Neither gets to vote in our general election, and given the population of Puerto Rico you're giving them more electoral clout than a lot of states.

Anyway, it's not going to matter.

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:53:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Relative Value of Voters by Ethnicity (none / 0)

Value of voters by your metrics:

Working class whites: 2
Educated whites : 0.3
African Americans: 0
Old white women: 3
Young white women: 0.5

As for "not counting"... Hillary has a whole list of states that "don't count"...

by LordMike on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:03:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Wasn't Kos the one (none / 0)

carping about Clinton saying voters don't count? And now they say PRs don't count? LOL

by activatedbybush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:53:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (none / 0)

Obama's win in Oregon will make up the difference in WV and for some of Kentucky. So, no Hillary will not win the popular vote.

by Spanky on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:25:30 AM EST

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (none / 0)

How True! Unfortunately for Obama should he be the nominee, he won't be able to count on the undemocratic caucuses to put him over the top in th GE. That is why he is a doomed candidate for the Fall election, should he be the nominee

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:40:35 AM EST

Democrats don't have a core constituency (none / 0)

We're a big tent party, there's no core and there shouldn't be. No one group is more important than any other and it's insulting to suggest otherwise. That's the whole point of being a liberal party, we don't exclude anyone. Working class whites (a group that I belonged to growing up) are no more the core than any other group and to say that they are is insulting the support and efforts of everyone that doesn't belong to that group.

by Gene In PA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:46:07 AM EST

He has the liberal loser coalition no doubt (2.00 / 1)

She has the stronger coalition. But this year is a dem year. He should be able to pull it out.

500K in PR seems like an awful lot. I've heard that one can expect about 1M voters there. No way she wins by 500K votes. I could see her netting 200K votes on a good day.

Yes, she can win the PV w/o FL - barely -- if she does ok in OR and blows Obama out in KY.

Best case -- w/FL and MI seated on a 1/2 vote basis, and with a strong finish, she's still 100pds or a few more behind Obama and has a whisker thin lead in the PV. I don't see that as being enough to take the nomination.

by activatedbybush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:47:16 AM EST

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (none / 0)

Today - the day after Hillary's trouncing of Obama - there SHOULD be (have been) a FLOOD of Super Delegates that move to her and endorse her.

If that doesn't happen, because she has proven (again) she is the strongest candidate - then I am convinced the SD's are in fear of upsetting the AA community and new younger voters to the point that they are willing to

a.) put up the weaker candidate who cannot win, and

b.) throw away the women's votes.

by nikkid on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:49:01 AM EST

Re: Hillary Will Win Popular Vote (none / 0)

There won't be a flood and it won't be for the reason you stated.

Why is West Virginia so important? Did you make the same argument when Obama ran off 11 in a row against her? Perhaps the SDs were afraid of upsetting old women.

by PSUdan on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:51:36 AM EST
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